Savor the slop: Kentucky Derby 2010

April 30th, 2010

Lookin at Lucky will be lookin’ at the inside rail unless he gets a jump on 19 other contenders in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. The 2-1 favorite drew the “unlucky” one hole, While second-favorite and front runner Sidney’s Candy drew the second least-favorite, far outside post.

The gulf between the favorites is especially wide since with an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Louisville forecast, the already sloppy track is certain to be sloppy or sloppier on Saturday. Except for Lookin At Lucky’s win on a fast track in the Rebel at Oaklawn, the one-two favorites have raced strictly on synthetic surfaces rated fast.

Mine That Bird

Mine That Bird

Sloppy conditions and a rail trip were the winning ticket last year for 50-1 shot Mine That Bird, while 4-1 favorite Smarty Jones ran his unbeaten record to seven on a sloppy track in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Only five of this year’s 20 Derby contenders have raced on a sloppy track: the lone filly in the field, Devil May Care (6-1), when she won her maiden at Saratoga by 4 3/4 lengths going 6 furlongs; Mission Impazible (15-1) with a win at 6 furlongs; Super Saver (12-1-) with a 7-length win at one mile; Backtalk (40-1) with a one mile win at Delta Downs; and Discreetly Mine 25-1), who finished out of the money.

If the race turns into a speed duel, as some think it will, Super Saver with Calvin “Bo-Rail” Borel aboard could be in the money. It was Borel who rode Mine That Bird to victory last year and was atop Super Saver for a close second in the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 10.

Super Saver savored victory at Churchill Downs last fall, when he closed out his 2-year-old campaign with a 5-length win in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club.

Super Saver, Sidney’s Candy and you’re Lookin at Lucky – how’s that for a trifecta box?

For the complete 2010 Kentucky Derby lineup with trainers and owners, click here.