2012 NCHA Futurity: What are the odds?

November 20th, 2012

2012 NCHA Futurity“Horse sense is the thing a horse has that keeps it from betting on people.” W.C. Fields

Cutters would probably add the words “and cattle,” after “people” in Fields’ proclamation, but in the long haul, the odds bear scrutiny when it comes to the NCHA Futurity. Here is look at the this year’s open field:

There are 18 sires with 10 or more open entries in the 2012 NCHA Futurity and these 18 sires, including 4 (23%) *first-crop sires, represent two-thirds (417 from 630) of the open entries:

  • High Brow Cat 78
  • Smooth As A Cat 48
  • Peptoboonsmal 41
  • Dual Rey 35
  • One Time Pepto 33
  • Spots Hot 19
  • Sweet Lil Pepto 18
  • Cats Merada 17
  • Hes A Peptospoonful 17
  • *Hydrive Cat 17
  • Reys Dual Badger 17
  • *Cats Quixote Jack 12
  • *High Brow CD 12
  • CD Lights 11
  • *Halreycious 11
  • WR This Cats Smart 11
  • Dual Smart Rey 10
  • Wild Haired Cat 10

Three of the 18 have won the NCHA Open Futurity: Peptoboonsmal (1995); Spots Hot (2004); and High Brow CD (2007).

Three of the 14 stallions with foals old enough to have competed in previous NCHA Futurities have sired NCHA Open Futurity champions:

  • High Brow Cat (Oh Miss Caroline in 2011; Metallic Cat in 2008; High Brow CD in 2007; Oh Cay Felix in 2006; Highbrow Supercat in 2005; One Smart Lookin Cat 2003)
  • Dual Rey (Rockin W in 2009)
  • One Time Pepto (One Time Royalty in 2010)

Seven of the 18 stallions are sired by High Brow Cat, who also accounts for the greatest number of open entries. Three of the 18 are sired by Peptoboonsmal, and three more are by Dual Rey. That leaves two stallions on the list of 18 other than High Brow Cat, Peptoboonsmal and Dual Rey, or their direct sons. The remaining two are Spots Hot, by Chula Dual (by Dual Rey’s sire, Dual Pep), and CD Lights, by the Doc O’Lena son CD Olena, who was also an NCHA Futurity champion.

All 7 of the High Brow Cat sons have different dams sires, as do the Dual Rey sons. While, all 3 of the Peptoboonsmal sons are out of Smart Little Lena daughters.